A Tony Award Forecast

So with the Tony Awards now very much in sight, I have received a handful of requests for a “Tony Prediction” post. I’ve been hesitant to share my predictions (in print anyway), but here are a few thoughts on what to expect and why you should tune in this year.

What I’m most excited for this season is that there is not a clear winner in the works. Unlike a couple of years ago when everyone knew The Book of Mormon would sweep, or even last year with ONCE, this time around we have a true race between two new shows for Best Musical, Matilda and Kinky Boots. I have not yet seen Matilda at the Shubert, but I did get a chance to see it in London last spring, and I absolutely loved it. I saw Kinky Boots several weeks ago, and it’s like musical theatre candy; the audience eats it up. Personally I’m rooting for Matilda for the big win, but here’s how I think some of the awards will break down.

Word on the street is Best Score will go to Kinky and Best Book will go to Matilda. Best Direction I think will be swiped by Diane Paulus for Pippin. Remember Pippin? Yeah, that’s the big sweep of the year for revivals. It should grab Best Revival, Best Direction, Best Choreography (Chet Walker), Best Actress (Patina Miller as Leading Player), and Best Featured Actress (Andrea Martin as Berthe). It may even take Best Featured Actor (Terrence Mann as Charlemagne), but that’s a tight race between Terrence and Gabriel Ebert as the father in Matilda. For Best Actor in a Musical, it’s a race between two men in drag: Bertie Carvel as the evil Principal in Matilda and Billy Porter as the fabulous Lola in Kinky. My money’s on Billy.

As for plays, I’m thinking Best Play will go to Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike by Christopher Durang, which I saw last night (go see it immediately. You’ll laugh your face off). Best Revival will likely go to Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?, but The Trip to Bountiful may make some surprise appearances. Tom Hanks will probably walk away with Best Actor for Lucky Guy, although I would like to see Nathan Lane win for The Nance. For Best Actress I don’t know what’s going to happen! I personally want to see Kristine Nielsen win for Vanya, but I only saw two of the nominated performances so I’m honestly not informed enough. I wouldn’t be surprised if Judith Light wins for Best Featured Actress in The Assembled Parties, and Best Featured Actor expectations are mixed. I really didn’t see enough of the nominated plays this season. Instead I was at The Heiress. Ugh.

This is starting to rattle on so I’m going to stop here, and I haven’t even covered all the lighting, scenic, and costume design, not to mention sound design and orchestrations. But no matter who ends up taking home the awards on Sunday night, it’s really about seeing the great performances of new and old shows, enjoying a hopefully fantastic opening number with host Neil Patrick Harris, and celebrating a night of theatre. So tune in to CBS on Sunday at 8pm ET.